RKT

Structural: Rocket is the #1 US retail mortgage originator by volume - a scaled tech-first platform competing with depository banks ($JPM, $WFC) and non-bank peers ($UWMC, $LDI). Revenue mix is the cycle tell: origination gain-on-sale collapses in high-rate environments, MSR servicing fees grow as the book seasons.

Pending Redfin acquisition layers home search + brokerage onto the loan funnel, with cross-sell math anchoring the deal logic.

- Fed rate-cut cycle reopens refi window; RKT operating leverage on origination is extreme (fixed tech stack, variable capacity)

- MSR book valuation rises as rates fall slower than origination recovers - net positive carry

- Redfin deal closes Q3 2026 → vertical funnel (search → finance → close) defensible vs $Z, $UWMC

- Rocket Money subscription + Rocket Loans personal credit diversify away from pure mortgage beta

- Dan Gilbert super-voting control means long-duration capital allocation, no activist pressure