Theme
CPU Bottleneck
Server CPUs, packaging and ARM-based silicon - the non-GPU compute layer.
0.490avg corr (252d)
4stocks
Decent co-movementStocks · key Fib levels
- AMD$540.88last$253.00fib+113.8%vs fibanchored by Microsoft · Meta · Oracle · OpenAI · Google · Amazon
- ▸2024-12: $MSFT Azure ND MI300X VM series GA - first hyperscaler MI300 production deployment
- ▸2025-02: $META disclosed MI300X internal inference workload at scale (Llama serving)
- ▸2025-06: $ORCL OCI MI300X bare-metal instances live; multi-billion commitment disclosed
- ▸2025-10: MI325X launch - 256GB HBM3E, shipping to hyperscaler anchors Q4 2025
- ▸2026-Q1: MI350 series (CDNA4, 3nm) sampling; production ramp H2 2026
- ▸2026-Q1: ZT Systems acquisition closed - rack-scale AI systems integration in-house
- ▸2026-04: EPYC Turin (5th gen, Zen 5) shipping; cited in $ORCL, $GOOG, $AMZN earnings as standard fleet CPU
- AMKR$79.99last$55.00fib+45.4%vs fibanchored by Apple · Qualcomm · NVIDIA · Broadcom · Texas Instruments
- ▸**2024-11**: CHIPS Act award finalized - up to $407M direct funding + up to 25% ITC for Peoria, AZ advanced-packaging facility (~$2B total capex)
- ▸**2023-11**: Apple ($AAPL) named anchor customer for Arizona facility - multi-year supply agreement for advanced packaging + test of TSMC Arizona-fabbed silicon
- ▸**2024**: Expanded 2.5D advanced-packaging capacity in Korea (K5 facility) to support AI-accelerator customers
- ▸**2025**: Vietnam facility (Bac Ninh) ramping memory and SiP volume - 2nd-phase build-out announced
- ▸Long-standing OSAT partner to $QCOM, $NVDA, $AVGO, $TXN, $INTC across mainstream and advanced packaging
- ARM$337.47last$185.00fib+82.4%vs fibanchored by NVIDIA · Apple · AWS · Google · Microsoft · Meta · Qualcomm · MediaTek · Samsung
- ▸2024-02 - Microsoft Cobalt 100 announced - first MSFT-custom Arm server CPU; Azure deployment broadens
- ▸2024-04-09 - Google Axion (Arm v9) announced for GCP general-purpose compute
- ▸2024-05 - Apple M4 launched (3nm, all-Arm v9 across M-series, A18 Pro across iPhone, S-chip across watch)
- ▸2024-11 - AWS Graviton4 GA; Arm Neoverse V2 powers 50%+ of EC2 compute hours within targeted SKUs
- ▸2025 - NVIDIA Grace + Blackwell shipping at scale (Arm v9 Neoverse V2 paired with every Blackwell GPU); Rubin generation continues the Arm pairing
- ▸2025-09 - Google Axion GA on GCP
- ▸2026-Q1 - Apple M5 (3nm successor, Arm v9.x) + A19 Pro launch maintain Apple's 100% Arm-silicon stack
- ▸2026 - Compute Subsystems (CSS) chiplet IP in production-ready hyperscaler programs; royalty per AI accelerator unit rises as CSS-licensed designs ship
- INTC$127.02last$60.00fib+111.7%vs fibanchored by Amazon Web Services · Microsoft · Dell · HP · Lenovo · Department of Defense · IBM Cloud
- ▸2024-02: CHIPS Act award - $8.5B grant + $11B loan for Arizona/Ohio/New Mexico fabs
- ▸2024-09: Amazon Web Services ($AMZN) - multi-year 18A custom AI fabric chip + Xeon 6 supply deal
- ▸2024-09: Microsoft ($MSFT) - 18A custom chip design win (disclosed at Direct Connect 2024)
- ▸2025-01: Department of Defense - Secure Enclave / RAMP-C trusted-fab Phase 3 award
- ▸2025-Q2: Altera carve-out - Silver Lake acquires 51% at $8.75B EV
- ▸2026-Q1: Gaudi 3 - IBM Cloud ($IBM) and Dell ($DELL) as launch infrastructure partners
Co-movement matrix (252d)
AMD | AMKR | ARM | INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | · | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| AMKR | 0.52 | · | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| ARM | 0.53 | 0.48 | · | 0.38 |
| INTC | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.38 | · |
About themes
Themes are editorial groupings - narrative buckets used for technical screens. They exist alongside bubbles, which are validated empirically by capital-flow co-movement.
When a theme's avg correlation is high, the editorial story is also tradeable as a bloc. When it's low, the narrative groups stocks that don't actually move together - useful for thinking, less useful for trading.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the top stocks in the CPU Bottleneck theme?
- QuantAbundancia's CPU Bottleneck theme tracks 4 stocks ranked editorially: AMD, AMKR, ARM, INTC.
- Do CPU Bottleneck stocks move together?
- The CPU Bottleneck theme has a 252-day average correlation of 0.49 across its members - decent co-movement. Editorial themes are narrative groupings, not capital-flow validated; tradability follows correlation, not the story.