Theme
Drones
UAVs and counter-UAS - defense and commercial.
0.463avg corr (252d)
5stocks
Decent co-movementStocks · key Fib levels
- AVAV$172.44last$170.00fib+1.4%vs fibanchored by US Army · US Special Operations Command · Ukraine MoD (via US PDA) · US Marine Corps · Taiwan (FMS) · NATO allies (undisclosed)
- ▸2026-05: BlueHalo all-stock merger announced (~$4B EV), pro-forma autonomy prime; close targeted mid-CY26
- ▸2026-03: Switchblade 600 selected under DoD Replicator tranche 2 for attritable autonomous systems
- ▸2025-Q4: $990M IDIQ ceiling for Switchblade 300/600 to US Army (multi-year delivery)
- ▸2025: Multiple Ukraine PDA drawdowns include Switchblade 300/600 and Puma 3 AE
- ▸2024: $249M JUMP 20 Group 3 UAS contract under US Army FTUAS bridge
- ▸2024: Taiwan FMS approval for Switchblade 300 + Altius-600M
- ▸Ongoing: Puma 3 AE on US Army FTUAS sustainment + multiple NATO end-users
- KTOS$53.04last$50.00fib+6.1%vs fibanchored by US Air Force · US Navy · Missile Defense Agency · US Army · Lockheed Martin · Raytheon · Northrop Grumman · SES · Intelsat
- ▸**2026 Q1** - US Air Force option exercised on additional Valkyrie XQ-58A airframes for Off-Board Sensing Station and CCA risk-reduction flights
- ▸**2025 Q4** - OpenSpace selected by a Tier-1 LEO constellation operator for software-defined ground (multi-year, undisclosed value)
- ▸**2025** - Sole-source extension on USAF / USN aerial target drone programs (BQM-167 / BQM-177); multi-year IDIQ
- ▸**2025** - Hypersonic vehicle and target programs with MDA / DoD continuing across Erinyes, Zeus, Dark Fury
- ▸**2024** - KGS microwave subsystems shipped into multiple classified missile + radar prime programs (recurring)
- ONDS$7.92last$8.90fib−11.0%vs fibanchored by USDA (American Robotics) · US Army · DHS · Class I Railroads (undisclosed) · Short-line Railroad Operators
- ▸**USDA / American Robotics** - multi-year contract for Scout drone deployments on agricultural land monitoring; one of the first commercial BVLOS-waivered federal contracts (2021-ongoing).
- ▸**Class I Railroad deployments - Ondas Networks** - FullMAX wireless systems deployed on multiple Class I and regional short-line railroads for grade-crossing safety and PTC backhaul (counterparties not fully disclosed; referenced in 10-K filings 2022-2025).
- ▸**US Army / DHS pilot programs - American Robotics** - drone systems evaluated under Department of Homeland Security critical-infrastructure inspection programs; contract values not disclosed.
- ▸**Railroads wayside monitoring (undisclosed Class I)** - Ondas Networks signed a multi-year managed-service agreement referenced in Q3 2024 earnings for wayside detector wireless backhaul.
- ▸**American Robotics BVLOS waiver (FAA, 2021)** - regulatory authorization rather than a commercial contract, but functionally equivalent to a moat: waiver covers automated drone-in-a-box operations without a visual observer, enabling unattended 24/7 field deployments.
- OSS$17.94last$9.50fib+88.8%vs fibanchored by U.S. Department of Defense · U.S. Army · U.S. Air Force · Autonomous vehicle OEMs · AI data center integrators
- ▸**2023-2024**: Multiple U.S. Army and Air Force AITU deployments for AI-enabled ISR and autonomous vehicle programs; OSS named preferred platform provider for ruggedized edge inference workloads.
- ▸**2024**: Expansion of commercial AI transport unit line targeting autonomous trucking and industrial logistics sectors; partnerships with Tier-1 OEM integrators.
- ▸**Ongoing**: GPU expansion and flash storage board sales to hyperscale AI data center builders ($MSFT, $GOOGL ecosystem) via PCIe expansion chassis product line - smaller revenue but higher repeatability.
- ▸**2025**: Continued AITU shipments under classified and unclassified DoD programs; management cited multi-quarter backlog visibility on Q4 2024 earnings call.
- UMAC$23.22last$12.00fib+93.5%vs fibanchored by US Government agencies · DoD-affiliated buyers · FPV hobbyist community
Co-movement matrix (252d)
AVAV | KTOS | ONDS | OSS | UMAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | · | 0.69 | 0.40 | 0.29 | 0.59 |
| KTOS | 0.69 | · | 0.52 | 0.34 | 0.59 |
| ONDS | 0.40 | 0.52 | · | 0.29 | 0.55 |
| OSS | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.29 | · | 0.37 |
| UMAC | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.37 | · |
About themes
Themes are editorial groupings - narrative buckets used for technical screens. They exist alongside bubbles, which are validated empirically by capital-flow co-movement.
When a theme's avg correlation is high, the editorial story is also tradeable as a bloc. When it's low, the narrative groups stocks that don't actually move together - useful for thinking, less useful for trading.
Related research
Frequently asked questions
- What are the top stocks in the Drones theme?
- QuantAbundancia's Drones theme tracks 5 stocks ranked editorially: AVAV, KTOS, ONDS, OSS, UMAC.
- Do Drones stocks move together?
- The Drones theme has a 252-day average correlation of 0.46 across its members - decent co-movement. Editorial themes are narrative groupings, not capital-flow validated; tradability follows correlation, not the story.