IREN

Renewable-powered DCs pivoting to GPU cloud, anchored by ~$10B MSFT 5-yr contract. Sweetwater 1 (1.4GW Texas) energized 2026-05-01; Mirantis acquired 2026-05-05 ($625M all-stock, dilutive); GPU fleet ramp to 150K incl 50K B300s. Q3 FY26 prints AH 2026-05-07 with a high bar after Feb's revenue miss.

• •2025-09 — ~$10B MSFT 5-year cloud contract signed (anchor customer; backlog pinned in stocks.contracted_backlog_usd_b)
• •2026-05-01 — Sweetwater 1 (1.4GW Texas data center) energized — first phase of the path to 4.5GW+ grid-connected
• •2026-05-05 — Mirantis acquired for $625M all-stock — adds AI cloud orchestration stack; direct dilution overhang on the float
• •2026-05 — GPU fleet ramp target 150K incl. 50K NVIDIA B300s (path toward the $3.4B ARR target by year-end 2026)
• •2026-05 — Cantor cut PT $82 → $61, kept Overweight. Sell-side avg PT $62.50 — spot has been running ABOVE consensus
• •2026-05-07 — Q3 FY26 reports AH. Estimates: -$0.22 EPS (yfinance: -$0.26), $219.69M revenue (+43.8% YoY). Last Feb quarter was a brutal revenue miss ($184.69M vs $227.33M est) — that's what nuked the stock from $61 to $30
• •Snapshot 2026-05-07: spot $56.85 (intra-week pull from $67.60 high), mcap ~$18.86B, P/S ~24.9x, fwd PE ~44.9x. Gross margin 68.1%, operating margin -45.8%. Cash $3.26B vs debt $3.84B, current ratio 4.96. Beta 4.18, avg vol ~34.7M, 52w range $6.76 - $76.87
• •Setup tension: real catalyst stack (Sweetwater + Mirantis + 150K GPUs + $10B MSFT) priced INTO the parabola from $30 → $67 in 5 weeks, with spot now above sell-side consensus. Tonight's print needs a clean revenue beat plus AI-cloud guidance to justify the multi expansion; bear-case is recent revenue-miss history + Mirantis dilution overhang. Counter-case clean: a breakout above $77 (Oct gap top) faces zero overhead supply