QuantAbundanciaAbundance, Quantified.
Theme

Neoclouds / GPU-as-a-Service

AI-native cloud operators that buy NVIDIA (and AMD) accelerators at scale and rent GPU-hours to AI labs and enterprises — the "GPU-as-a-Service" layer sitting between the chipmakers and the model builders. Distinct from the hyperscalers: neoclouds run a thin, compute-first stack optimized for training and inference density, not a full enterprise-software cloud. The public pure-plays are CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS); a second cohort of bitcoin miners has pivoted their power + real estate into HPC hosting (APLD, IREN, CORZ, WULF, CIFR). The capacity leaders driving the actual buildout are still private — Crusoe, Lambda, Together AI, Nscale — several on IPO tracks. Microsoft alone has struck ~$60B of neocloud capacity commitments across CoreWeave, Nebius and Nscale. Tracked as an editorial theme rather than a 13th bubble because the listed basket beta-drifts into semiconductors + datacenter-power. Thematic ETF: Roundhill Neocloud ETF ($NCLD).

0.568avg corr (252d)
7stocks
Decent co-movement

Stocks · key Fib levels

  • #1
    CRWV
    $84.27last
    $96.00fib

    The flagship listed neocloud. Purpose-built GPU cloud, largest independent NVIDIA capacity outside the hyperscalers; anchor of Microsoft's ~$60B neocloud commitments. The cleanest public pure-play on GPU-as-a-Service.

    $67B backloganchored by OpenAI · META · Anthropic
    • ~$67B contracted revenue backlog (~$88B including Anthropic)
    • Major commitments from OpenAI and Meta
  • #2
    NBIS
    $202.50last
    $113.00fib

    Nebius — European-rooted AI-native cloud (Yandex spinout). Full-stack GPU cloud + own datacenters; second clean listed pure-play alongside CRWV, also inside the Microsoft capacity deals.

    $46B backloganchored by MSFT · META · NVDA
    • ~$46B contracted backlog
    • ~$19B Microsoft deal
    • ~$27B Meta partnership through 2032
    • $2B equity check from NVDA
  • Applied Digital — HPC/AI datacenter developer-operator. Pivoted from bitcoin hosting to purpose-built AI campuses; leases high-density capacity to neocloud + hyperscaler tenants.

    $11B backlog400 MWanchored by CRWV
    • Polaris Forge 1 (North Dakota): 400 MW critical IT load
    • Fully contracted to CoreWeave under ~15-year leases (~$11B expected revenue)
    • First 100 MW delivered Q4 2025; remaining 300 MW targeted through 2027
  • #4
    IREN
    $41.92last
    $43.00fib

    IREN (ex-Iris Energy) — bitcoin miner converting owned power + sites into GPU cloud + AI HPC hosting. Power-first neocloud convert with a self-built datacenter footprint.

    $10B backlog2.9 GWanchored by MSFT
    • 2025-09 - ~$10B MSFT 5-year cloud contract signed (anchor customer; backlog pinned in stocks.contracted_backlog_usd_b)
    • 2026-05-01 - Sweetwater 1 (1.4GW Texas data center) energized - first phase of the path to 4.5GW+ grid-connected
    • 2026-05-05 - Mirantis acquired for $625M all-stock - adds AI cloud orchestration stack; direct dilution overhang on the float
    • 2026-05 - GPU fleet ramp target 150K incl. 50K NVIDIA B300s (path toward the $3.4B ARR target by year-end 2026)
    • 2026-05 - Cantor cut PT $82 → $61, kept Overweight. Sell-side avg PT $62.50 - spot has been running ABOVE consensus
    • 2026-05-07 - Q3 FY26 reports AH. Estimates: -$0.22 EPS (yfinance: -$0.26), $219.69M revenue (+43.8% YoY). Last Feb quarter was a brutal revenue miss ($184.69M vs $227.33M est) - that's what nuked the stock from $61 to $30
    • Snapshot 2026-05-07: spot $56.85 (intra-week pull from $67.60 high), mcap ~$18.86B, P/S ~24.9x, fwd PE ~44.9x. Gross margin 68.1%, operating margin -45.8%. Cash $3.26B vs debt $3.84B, current ratio 4.96. Beta 4.18, avg vol ~34.7M, 52w range $6.76 - $76.87
    • Setup tension: real catalyst stack (Sweetwater + Mirantis + 150K GPUs + $10B MSFT) priced INTO the parabola from $30 → $67 in 5 weeks, with spot now above sell-side consensus. Tonight's print needs a clean revenue beat plus AI-cloud guidance to justify the multi expansion; bear-case is recent revenue-miss history + Mirantis dilution overhang. Counter-case clean: a breakout above $77 (Oct gap top) faces zero overhead supply
  • Core Scientific — HPC hosting at scale, anchored by a multi-year CoreWeave hosting contract. The picks-and-shovels landlord to a listed neocloud.

    anchored by CoreWeave · Bitmain · Foundry Digital
    • **Jun 2026** - CoreWeave contract expansion announced, bringing total contracted HPC hosting capacity to ~590 MW with ~$10B aggregate revenue potential over 12-year terms
    • **Mar 2026** - Additional CoreWeave HPC hosting amendment adding 70 MW, total contract value stepped up versus prior disclosures
    • **Jun 2025** - Expanded CoreWeave HPC hosting deals to ~382 MW contracted, multi-year, anchored at Denton TX site
    • **Jun 2025** - Initial CoreWeave HPC hosting contract: 200 MW, 12-year, ~$3.5B aggregate revenue potential
    • **Jan 2024** - Emerged from Chapter 11, relisted on Nasdaq under ticker CORZ
    • **2023** - Initial $1.6B / 12-year CoreWeave HPC hosting framework signed pre-emergence
  • #6
    WULF
    $21.32last
    - fib

    TeraWulf — miner converting low-cost (nuclear-adjacent) power into AI/HPC hosting capacity. Power + real estate optionality more than a full GPU-cloud stack.

    $12.7B backlog528 MWanchored by Core42 · Fluidstack · GOOGL
    • Lake Mariner: 360 MW to Fluidstack ($3.2B Google guarantee)
    • Abernathy JV: 168 MW over 25 years
    • $9.5B contracted revenue with $1.3B Google lease support
  • #7
    CIFR
    $20.91last
    $17.00fib

    Cipher Mining — bitcoin miner pivoting sites toward AI/HPC hosting. Earliest-stage of the miner-to-neocloud converts; optionality play on the power + land base.

    $6.9B backlog600 MWanchored by Fluidstack · GOOGL · AWS
    • Barber Lake: 300 MW fully contracted with Fluidstack
    • Google backstops $1.4B with ~5% equity stake
    • Separate AWS $5.5B 15-year deal for another 300 MW

Private leaders· IPO watch · not investable today

  • #1Crusoe EnergyDenver, CO · est. 2018

    Power-first AI-factory model; ~$30B valuation in talks mid-2026.

    backersFounders FundFidelityMubadalaG2 Venture PartnersNVIDIA

    outlook~$10B in the Oct 2025 round; reportedly in talks mid-2026 to raise ~$3B near a ~$30B valuation. Among the most likely large neocloud IPO candidates.

    $10.0B2025-10
  • #2NscaleLondon, UK · est. 2024

    Fastest scale-up; inside the Microsoft ~$60B neocloud commitments.

    backersSandton CapitalBlue OwlDellNokiaNVIDIAAker

    outlook$2B Series C at $14.6B (Mar 2026), one of the fastest scale-ups in the sector. Inside the ~$60B Microsoft capacity deals; IPO plausible on continued buildout.

    $14.6B2026-03
  • #3Together AISan Francisco, CA · est. 2022

    Neocloud + inference-stack hybrid; $8.3B (Jul 2026).

    backersGeneral CatalystProsperity7NVIDIAKleiner PerkinsLux Capital

    outlook$800M Series C at $8.3B (Jul 2026). Fast-compounding valuation; credible late-stage IPO candidate if inference demand holds.

    $8.30B2026-07
  • #4LambdaSan Francisco, CA · est. 2012

    Earliest GPUaaS pure-play; nearest-term IPO candidate.

    backersThomas TullSGWB CapitalSK TelecomNVIDIAARK Invest

    outlook~$5.9B last primary round (late 2025); secondary marks near ~$9B by mid-2026. Working toward an IPO — one of the nearest-term listed-neocloud candidates.

    $5.90B2025-12

Co-movement matrix (252d)

APLD
CIFR
CORZ
CRWV
IREN
NBIS
WULF
APLD·0.610.670.570.590.530.50
CIFR0.61·0.680.440.780.490.64
CORZ0.670.68·0.690.640.610.55
CRWV0.570.440.69·0.480.670.30
IREN0.590.780.640.48·0.520.58
NBIS0.530.490.610.670.52·0.39
WULF0.500.640.550.300.580.39·

About themes

Themes are editorial groupings - narrative buckets used for technical screens. They exist alongside bubbles, which are validated empirically by capital-flow co-movement.

When a theme's avg correlation is high, the editorial story is also tradeable as a bloc. When it's low, the narrative groups stocks that don't actually move together - useful for thinking, less useful for trading.

Related research

Frequently asked questions

What are the top stocks in the Neoclouds / GPU-as-a-Service theme?
QuantAbundancia's Neoclouds / GPU-as-a-Service theme tracks 7 stocks ranked editorially: CRWV, NBIS, APLD, IREN, CORZ, WULF, CIFR.
Which private companies are in the Neoclouds / GPU-as-a-Service theme?
4 private leaders are tracked for IPO watch: Crusoe Energy, Nscale, Together AI, Lambda.
Do Neoclouds / GPU-as-a-Service stocks move together?
The Neoclouds / GPU-as-a-Service theme has a 252-day average correlation of 0.57 across its members - decent co-movement. Editorial themes are narrative groupings, not capital-flow validated; tradability follows correlation, not the story.