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Paring down the central bank's balance sheet, or doing nothing at all, poses potentially dire consequences for the stock market.
Jerome Powell's successor and the Chicago Fed president foresee wildly different interest rate outcomes from the evolution of AI.
Investors step into the week after a Friday in the red, spurred by a stable of geopolitical uncertainties post Trump-Xi summit, rising bond yields, and sticky inflation.
It's incredibly rare when a sitting Fed chair interjects their opinion on stock valuations -- and when this happens, it shouldn't be ignored.
<body><p>STORY: Wall Street's main indexes retreated from AI-fueled record highs on Friday, with the Dow dropping 1%, the S&P 500 shedding one-and-a-quarter percent and the Nasdaq declining more than one-and-a-half percent.</p><p>Stocks moved lower as a jump in benchmark Treasury yields reflected surging energy prices and concerns about long-term inflation.</p><p>Leah Bennett is chief investment strategist at Concurrent Investment Advisors.</p><p>“Equities are trading down today primarily, I think, because people are disappointed not to see any sort of movement between Trump and Xi coming out of the summit regarding the conflict in the Middle East. So, oil is up another 4% today. We obviously saw an impact on the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the PPI (Producer Price Index). And the longer that oil prices stay up, the longer we're going to have rising inflation. And this is the first time we've really seen the ten-year inflation expectations cross 2.5%. And historically, that's been very consistent with a period where the Fed had to increase interest rates.”</p><p>Friday marks Jerome Powell's last day as U.S. Federal Reserve chair. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh is saddled with the potential need for a rate hike if a protracted Iran war leads to sticky inflation.</p><p>Among individual stock moves, the AI rally largely stalled, with Nvidia losing nearly 4.5%, AMD shedding more than 5.5% and Intel dropping more than 6%.</p><p>On the flip side, shares of Microsoft rose 3% following the disclosure of a new position in the company taken by Bill Ackman's hedge fund Pershing Square.</p><p>And shares of Ford slid about 7.5%, retreating from a near 21% surge over the last two sessions on optimism over the automaker's energy storage business.</p></body>
Interest rates, economic growth expectations, inflation trends, and credit conditions often determine which parts of the market lead and which fall behind. Dow Industrials trading near the very round 50,000 level is beginning to resemble a potential double top relative to the February peak. Bearish RSI divergence, marked by lower highs in April and May even as the Dow pushed upward, suggests upside momentum is fading.
May 15 (Reuters) - Futures tracking the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 tumbled more than 1% on Friday, with an AI-driven rally in U.S. stocks poised to stall, as Treasury yields jumped on concerns about
The central bank may be transforming from Wall Street's foundation to a liability before our eyes.
Stocks looked set to fall on Friday as investors fretted about soaring Treasury yields and President Donald Trump’s summit with China's leader Xi Jinping concluded without any meaningful breakthrough on trade. “For some time, analysts have been puzzled by equity markets’ resilience in the face of rising bond yields and clear inflationary pressures,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at the foreign-exchange brokerage XTB. “Today we may see the pressure of rising bond yields start to weigh on equities, and futures prices suggest that U.S. indices will pull back from record highs later today and could close the week on a dampener.”
We got a hot April Consumer Price Index (CPI) number, driven in a big way by energy costs, but even core CPI was surprisingly high, driven by a jump in shelter costs for the first time in a while. The April Producer Price Index (PPI) was even further above estimates. On May 12th, the ...
Higher inflation may not be as short-term as the president thinks, based on what history tells us.
The central bank that Wall Street has become accustomed to may be on the verge of significant change.
Oil prices moved slightly lower on Wednesday, but markets were buoyed to new heights by the strength of the tech sector. Plus, the new Federal Reserve chair cleared his final confirmation hurdle this afternoon, which likely alleviated some lingering uncertainty at the central bank, and among investors. Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate with a vote of 54-45 on Wednesday afternoon, becoming the 17th person to take on the job.
A rebound for technology stocks led Wall Street to records, even though the majority of U.S. stocks fell following another discouraging update on inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 1.2% to its own record. Nvidia and other tech stocks led the way, a day after stumbling in an industrywide swoon.
May 13 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 was subdued at the open on Wednesday, as hotter-than-anticipated producer prices reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve would keep monetary policy restrictive all
Stocks struggled to find direction after wholesale prices surged more than expected in April. The S&P 500 was flat, while the Dow fell 210 points, or 0.4%. The Nasdaq gained 0.2% The inflation report for April this morning revealed that the cost of producing goods has been higher than expected.
Stock futures dropped after producer prices for April came in shockingly hot. Futures tracking the Dow were down 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%, erasing earlier gains. Futures tracking the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.
Pre-Market Stock Futures: Futures are trading mixed on Wednesday, after a rough day for technology stocks and the Nasdaq. The combination of the prospect of a longer struggle with Iran, and higher inflation, which soared to 3.8% annually, the highest since May 2023, while the core number, which is less food and energy, rose to ... Here Are Wednesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Advanced Micro Devices, Akamai Technologies, HEICO, Johnson & Johnson, MasTec, MercadoLibre, Sandisk, Snap
Wall Street shares were set for a mixed start on Wednesday as investors prepare to wait for news from Donald Trump’s visit to China. Stock futures pointed in different directions ahead of the opening bell, with Dow Jones futures down 114 points or 0.2% at 49,755, while S&P 500 futures...
President Trump's Fed chair nominee could be opening a can of worms for investors.
<body><p>STORY: U.S. stocks ended mostly lower on Tuesday, but the Dow posted a modest gain, while the S&P 500 edged down slightly and the Nasdaq lost seven-tenths of a percent.</p><p>The S&P 500 and Nasdaq eased off record highs after the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index was hotter than expected, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.8%, its highest in three years.</p><p>And that's likely where it will hover for a while, says Dean Smith, chief strategist and portfolio manager for FolioBeyond.</p><p>"So I think the markets are digesting the fact that this is real. This is our new normal now. This is where we're going to live. We're going to be living in an inflationary environment that's in the neighborhood of between 3.5 and 4%. We're going to be living with something like a 4.5% 10-year [Treasury bond yield], something like a 5% 30- year long bond for the foreseeable future. And that's going to cause some recalibration. I think that's what we're seeing in the market today."</p><p>Meanwhile, the Iran war, now in its 11th week, showed no signs of a near-term resolution. </p><p>The notion of a protracted conflict raises the probability that spiking energy prices could create more entrenched inflation. That has all but squelched hopes for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year under the presumed chairmanship of Kevin Warsh, whom the U.S. Senate confirmed to the central bank board on Tuesday.</p><p>Among the session's stock moves, shares of Humana gained more than 7.5% after Bernstein hiked its price target by 36%.</p><p>:: eBay</p><p>Shares of GameStop dipped about 3.5% after eBay rejected the meme stock trailblazer's $56 billion takeover bid.</p><p>:: Hims & Hers </p><p>And shares of Hims & Hers Health tumbled about 14% after the telehealth company's pivot to branded weight-loss drugs drove up costs and led to a surprise loss in the first quarter.</p></body>
