Playbook

Methodology

Three lenses, layered. A trade only happens when at least two of them point the same way.

• Sectors (/sectors) - the flat universe map. ~600 names across 86 sub-sectors, organized by parent group. The morning starts here: which sub-sectors moved overnight, which leaders are setting up.
• Bubbles (/correlation) - the empirical co-movement clusters. QA-validated bubbles (Quantum 0.76, Semi Equipment 0.82, Memory·HBM 0.71, Cooling·DC Infra 0.70) trade as one. If a leader breaks out, the bubble follows; if the bubble's average correlation drops, the thesis is decaying.
• Themes + Fib levels - narrative + price structure. 48 user-curated Fib key levels (/correlation → individual stocks) anchor entry/exit; the editorial themes give the narrative frame (Space, Drones, Photonics, Nuclear, Quantum, Power, Sovereign Cloud, ...).

Entry rules

An entry needs three boxes ticked. Two-of-three is a smaller starter; one-of-three is a watchlist add, not a trade.

• Structure - price at or just past a Fib key level (touch + retest, not the first touch). Or a clean breakout above a multi-week consolidation with the level becoming new support.
• Sector tailwind - the leaf sector (/sectors/<slug>) is greening on multiple names, not just the candidate. Bubble correlation ≥ 0.6 if available.
• Catalyst window - earnings ≥ 7 days out OR clearly post-earnings drift. No entries inside the 48h window before an EPS print.
• Sizing - full size only when all three boxes are tight. Half size on two-of-three.

Exit rules

Exits are mechanical. The thesis decays before the chart breaks; ignore both at your peril.

• Stop - below the Fib structure that triggered the entry, on a 1H close. No intra-bar stops.
• First target - next Fib level up. Trim 1/3 of the position there, raise the stop to entry.
• Runner - let the rest ride until either: (a) bubble average correlation drops below 0.4 - co-movement is no longer thematic; (b) sector rotation is visible in the data (sector turns red on /today); (c) the trailing Fib structure breaks.
• Time stop - if the thesis hasn't moved in 5 trading days, half the position is closed regardless.

Risk management

The constraints come from the IBKR LLC cash account: long-only, no margin, no real shorts, T+1 unlocks per fill.

• Position sizing - 1R = 0.5% of equity. Full-size trade risks 1R; half-size risks 0.5R. No single position above 5% of equity.
• Concurrent positions - max 8 open trades. Beyond that, attention quality drops.
• Sector concentration - max 3 trades in the same parent group (AI, Energy, Defense, ...). Forced diversification across the universe.
• Earnings rule - never carry a full-size position into earnings. Trim to ≤0.5R risk before close on EPS day.
• Leveraged-ETF exposure - TQQQ / SOXL count 3× their weight against the sector concentration cap. Inverse ETFs (SQQQ) act as the only allowed short surrogate; max one inverse position open at a time.

Journal