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From 1637 tulips to the AI supercycle, an evidence-first walk through the great speculative bubbles: what actually happened in each, what the legend gets wrong, and the four mechanics that repeat.
Ten bubbles, in order, from 1637 tulips to the AI supercycle. Each chapter is the evidence-first version, not the legend, and each one maps to the same four mechanics that keep repeating.
En 1637, un seul bulbe de tulipe néerlandais pouvait s'échanger contre le prix d'une maison sur un canal d'Amsterdam, puis le marché a chuté d'environ 99 % en une semaine. Ce qui s'est réellement passé est plus utile que la légende.
South Sea shares ran from about 128 pounds in January 1720 to roughly 1,000 by August, then crashed to 100-200 by December. The real business was never trade. It was converting the national debt.
In 1846 Parliament passed 272 railway acts and authorised capital near Britain's entire annual GDP. Most of those lines lost half their value or were never built. Real does not mean safe.
The Dow ran from about 63 in 1921 to 381 in September 1929, then fell roughly 89% by 1932. The crash was real. The thing that turned it into a decade was the policy response, not the selloff.
In 1972 about fifty 'buy and never sell' growth stocks traded at 50 to 90x earnings, some above 100x. Then the 1973-74 bear market cut the S&P roughly 48% and many of them 60 to 90%. The companies were excellent. The price was the bubble.
On 19 October 1987 the Dow fell 22.6% in a single day, the biggest one-day drop ever. No recession followed. The reason was code, and the response was a Fed that printed before lunch.
The Nasdaq ran from about 1,000 in 1996 to 5,048 in March 2000, then fell roughly 78% and erased about 5 trillion dollars. The trend was right. Picking the survivor was the hard part.
The S&P 500 fell about 57% from its 2007 peak and Lehman filed the largest bankruptcy in US history. The shiny asset was houses. The real bubble was leverage, repriced AAA, and one model assumption.
GameStop hit roughly $483, Bitcoin roughly $69,000, ARKK and SPACs fell 67% or more in 2022, and bonds had their worst year in modern history. The single asset everyone missed was the one priced at zero: interest rates.
Hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions a year on AI compute while the dominant chipmaker helps finance its own customers. The history of bubbles says real technology and a real bubble are not opposites.
Standalone explainers on the methods behind the research: the concepts you need before the charts make sense.
La validation walk-forward sépare le hasard d'échantillon de l'avantage réel. 104 paires (stratégie, ticker) testées sur l'univers QA - 56 ROBUST, 20 STABLE, 18 LUMPY, 10 sans trade. Voici la procédure, les verdicts, et pourquoi la plupart des backtests retail y échouent en silence.
Le retour à la moyenne est une classe, pas une stratégie. Nous avons walk-forwardé trois implémentations sur 35 valeurs thématiques : le canal de régression gagne sur 22 des 35, le panier Fibonacci gagne à un PF de 1,76, le Bollinger à moyenne plate gagne sur 1 des 35. La raison structurelle tient à la moyenne que vous postulez.
Le Fibonacci des manuels, c'est 23,6 / 38,2 / 50 / 61,8 / 78,6 %. Nous avons backtesté 48 niveaux sélectionnés par l'utilisateur sur 12 thèmes - PF du panier 1,76, Sharpe 1,42, +23,7 % sur 3 ans. Voici ce qui marche, ce qui ne marche pas, et sur quelles classes de titres.
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