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Taiyo Yuden Co., Ltd.
Information Technology · Electronic Components
Structural read: the passives leg of the AI-server buildout. Every AI server board consumes thousands of high-capacitance MLCCs, and the Japan/Korea oligopoly (Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Yageo, Taiyo Yuden, TDK, together ~70-80% of a ~$32B 2026 market) controls the scarce high-uF small-case tier.
Taiyo Yuden is the #4 pure-play: the highest-beta, most mix-levered name in the group, which cuts both ways.
- AI-server MLCC sales guided +80% YoY for the fiscal year; Q1 (Apr-Jun 2026) revenue +11% YoY, operating income +53%, a return to net profit.
- Guidance raised (full-year revenue +10%, operating income +50%). Orders +23% YoY, book-to-bill 1.25 for a second consecutive quarter above 1.0 (bookings outrunning shipments).
- Running full utilization; capacity expansion in the Philippines and India into structural demand.
- Oligopoly pricing: high-uF small-case parts are supply-constrained, the "electronic rice" still in shortage as AI servers absorb ~10% of capacity.
- Marginal supplier in the oligopoly: Murata (~45% AI-server share) and Samsung Electro-Mechanics (~40%, closing the gap) out-scale it, leaving less pricing insulation if the cycle rolls.
- Cycle-peak valuation: ~58x forward / ~101x trailing earnings on a ~5% operating margin leaves no room for a demand air-pocket.
- Cyclical passives: consumer, automotive, and smartphone end-markets are still the majority of the book; a broad electronics downturn hits mix and utilization.
- The Aug-2026 Situational Awareness (Aschenbrenner) disclosure that popped the stock was backward-looking: the fund cut from a 16.61% peak (Jul 22) to 4.41% (Aug 3) before the Aug 12 filings, so the "smart-money is in" read was already stale on the pop.
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