Theme
AI Hardware
Foundries, memory, lithography - the AI silicon supply chain.
0.314avg corr (252d)
21stocks
Weak co-movementStocks · key Fib levels
- 3110- last- fib
T-Glass glass cloth is the substrate-materials layer of AI hardware - reinforces every high-end IC substrate and high-speed PCB.
anchored by NVIDIA · Microsoft · Google · Amazon · Apple (courting)- ▸**2023-H2** - T-Glass lines running at full capacity; multi-quarter delivery waits for substrate / PCB customers
- ▸**2025** - ¥150B Fukushima plant expansion to ~triple production-grade T-Glass capacity (mass production targeted by end-2026)
- ▸**2025-11** - Capacity partnership with Nan Ya (Taiwan); Nan Ya to handle ~20% of glass-fiber output by 2027 amid the AI surge
- ▸**2026** - Top-tier T-Glass priced $80-100/kg; end-demand pulled by NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, Amazon; reportedly courted by Apple
- ▸**FY26 (reported)** - Net income ¥41.8B (+225% YoY) - boosted ~¥37B by extraordinary / one-off items; revenue ¥118.2B (+8.4%)
- ▸**FY27 (guide)** - Net sales ¥137.0B (+15.9%), operating profit ¥26.0B (+24.9%), net income ¥17.0B (one-off rolls off)
- ARM$343.90last$185.00fib+85.9%vs fib
CSS chiplet IP underpins every AI accelerator's host CPU; ARM cores in NVIDIA Grace, AWS Trainium host, every hyperscaler-custom AI silicon program.
anchored by NVIDIA · Apple · AWS · Google · Microsoft · Meta · Qualcomm · MediaTek · Samsung- ▸2024-02 - Microsoft Cobalt 100 announced - first MSFT-custom Arm server CPU; Azure deployment broadens
- ▸2024-04-09 - Google Axion (Arm v9) announced for GCP general-purpose compute
- ▸2024-05 - Apple M4 launched (3nm, all-Arm v9 across M-series, A18 Pro across iPhone, S-chip across watch)
- ▸2024-11 - AWS Graviton4 GA; Arm Neoverse V2 powers 50%+ of EC2 compute hours within targeted SKUs
- ▸2025 - NVIDIA Grace + Blackwell shipping at scale (Arm v9 Neoverse V2 paired with every Blackwell GPU); Rubin generation continues the Arm pairing
- ▸2025-09 - Google Axion GA on GCP
- ▸2026-Q1 - Apple M5 (3nm successor, Arm v9.x) + A19 Pro launch maintain Apple's 100% Arm-silicon stack
- ▸2026 - Compute Subsystems (CSS) chiplet IP in production-ready hyperscaler programs; royalty per AI accelerator unit rises as CSS-licensed designs ship
- ASML$1863.61last$1205.00fib+54.7%vs fibanchored by TSMC · Samsung Electronics · Intel · SK Hynix · Micron
- ▸2024-2025 - TSMC + Samsung + Intel + SK Hynix High-NA EUV (EXE:5200) shipments ramping
- ▸2025 - Continuing TWINSCAN NXE EUV deliveries to all major leading-edge fabs
- ▸2025 - DPV/i-line system sales to legacy + power-semi fab capacity
- ▸2026 - High-NA EUV mix climbing as % of system revenue; 2nm + A16 node ramps drive demand
- ▸Service backlog visible in 10-year forward installed base annuity
- CBRS$223.97last- fib$24.6B backlog750 MWanchored by G42 · MBZUAI (Mohamed bin Zayed University of AI) · OpenAI · Amazon Web Services
- ▸2024-09 - First S-1 filed; later withdrawn after CFIUS opened a review of G42's minority stake
- ▸2025-10 - CFIUS review concluded after G42 holding restructured to non-voting shares; path cleared for listing
- ▸2025-12-24 - NVIDIA's $20B Groq asset/license acquisition (read-through: frontier inference market partitioning into a specialist tier; NVDA buying in rather than ceding the lane)
- ▸2026-01-14 - OpenAI deal signed: 750 MW of low-latency compute through 2028. Initial press value $10B; subsequent MRA disclosures place binding commitments at >$20B with expansion provisions up to 2 GW by 2030
- ▸2026-02 - Hiive private secondary implied ~$23B valuation (IPO 3 months later doubled this)
- ▸2026-03-13 - AWS announced Cerebras as first cloud provider for disaggregated inference on Amazon Bedrock; Trainium + WSE pairing claims "5× more high-speed token capacity in the same hardware footprint"
- ▸2026-05-13 - IPO priced $185 (above $150-160 range, walked up from original $115-125); book reportedly 20× oversubscribed
- ▸2026-05-14 - Day 1 open $350, close $311.07 (+68.2%); $5.55B raised on 30M shares; $48.8B fully-diluted valuation; 2026's largest US tech IPO
- ▸2026-Q3 (est) - Accelerated lockup: 60M+ shares unlock by Q2 2026 earnings release, ~2× IPO float hitting tape inside 90 days (vs standard 180-day expiry mid-November 2026)
- ▸Snapshot 2026-05-18: price ~$311, mcap ~$48.8B fully-diluted (~157M sh × $311), 2025 revenue $510M (+76% YoY from $290M), 2025 GAAP net income $237.8M but operating loss $145.9M
- ▸Customer concentration: G42 (24% of 2025 rev, was 85% in 2024) + MBZUAI (62%) = ~86% UAE-linked, both flagged as related parties in the S-1; apparent 2025 diversification away from G42 was reallocation between connected Abu Dhabi entities, not new customer acquisition
- ▸Backlog concentration: ~$24.6B disclosed, of which ~80% is OpenAI; revenue recognition gated by OpenAI's own datacenter buildout pace (power + zoning, not chips)
- ▸Setup tension: first specialist inference accelerator on the public tape, but the entire forward business is explained by three customers (G42, MBZUAI, OpenAI) through 2028; GAAP profitability is non-operating (the $237.8M net income line is not a sustainable run-rate while operating loss continues); fast lockup creates structural supply pressure ~Q3 2026; inference TAM is contestable and workload-specific (21× B200 advantage on Llama 3 70B reasoning doesn't generalize to training, embeddings, or image gen)
- ▸Editorial deep-dive: /articles/cerebras-cbrs-ipo
- DELL$435.55last$145.91fib+198.5%vs fibanchored by xAI (Colossus) · Microsoft · Meta · Hyperscalers (undisclosed)
- ▸2026-05-28 AMC - Q1 FY27 PRINT: Revenue $43.8B vs $35.6B est (+23% beat); EPS $4.86 vs $2.94 est (+65% beat); AI Server segment sales $16.1B (+757% YoY)
- ▸2026-05-28 - FY27 guidance issued: Revenue $167B vs $144B est (+16% above); EPS $17.90 vs $13.16 est (+36% above)
- ▸ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - AI server orderbook expansion; xAI Colossus deployment publicly anchored; Microsoft + Meta hyperscaler order flow disclosed in prior quarters
- ▸CSG (Client Solutions Group) - PC / laptop / workstation; mature low-growth segment, the structural overhang vs pure AI server names
- ▸Pre-print setup: spot $317.67 (parabolic from ~$160 over recent weeks); mcap ~$222B at print time; analyst PT mean $212 trailed spot by $100+ - print delivered the AI server beat + raised forward guide, validating the parabolic move ahead of the data
- ▸Setup tension RESOLVED: print delivered on the AI server segment ($16.1B vs trajectory expectations) AND the forward guide; the structural read on ISG as the AI capex beneficiary is now post-print confirmed
- ▸Customer concentration: xAI (Colossus deployment) + Microsoft + Meta + undisclosed hyperscalers; concentrated but counterparties have multi-year capex commitments
- ▸Source: @StockSavvyShay tweet 2026-05-28 20:11 UTC - https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2060091643014037991
- ▸Editorial deep-dive opportunity: post-print recap via earnings-recap skill (FY27 guide validates the bull structural read)
- ▸2026-05-28 post-print reaction - close $402.73 (+~30% vs prior $317.67); @KobeissiLetter breaking flag; the AH/next-session move validates the FY27 guide read at scale
- DELL$435.55last$168.33fib+158.7%vs fibanchored by xAI (Colossus) · Microsoft · Meta · Hyperscalers (undisclosed)
- ▸2026-05-28 AMC - Q1 FY27 PRINT: Revenue $43.8B vs $35.6B est (+23% beat); EPS $4.86 vs $2.94 est (+65% beat); AI Server segment sales $16.1B (+757% YoY)
- ▸2026-05-28 - FY27 guidance issued: Revenue $167B vs $144B est (+16% above); EPS $17.90 vs $13.16 est (+36% above)
- ▸ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - AI server orderbook expansion; xAI Colossus deployment publicly anchored; Microsoft + Meta hyperscaler order flow disclosed in prior quarters
- ▸CSG (Client Solutions Group) - PC / laptop / workstation; mature low-growth segment, the structural overhang vs pure AI server names
- ▸Pre-print setup: spot $317.67 (parabolic from ~$160 over recent weeks); mcap ~$222B at print time; analyst PT mean $212 trailed spot by $100+ - print delivered the AI server beat + raised forward guide, validating the parabolic move ahead of the data
- ▸Setup tension RESOLVED: print delivered on the AI server segment ($16.1B vs trajectory expectations) AND the forward guide; the structural read on ISG as the AI capex beneficiary is now post-print confirmed
- ▸Customer concentration: xAI (Colossus deployment) + Microsoft + Meta + undisclosed hyperscalers; concentrated but counterparties have multi-year capex commitments
- ▸Source: @StockSavvyShay tweet 2026-05-28 20:11 UTC - https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2060091643014037991
- ▸Editorial deep-dive opportunity: post-print recap via earnings-recap skill (FY27 guide validates the bull structural read)
- ▸2026-05-28 post-print reaction - close $402.73 (+~30% vs prior $317.67); @KobeissiLetter breaking flag; the AH/next-session move validates the FY27 guide read at scale
- DELL$435.55last$221.22fib+96.9%vs fibanchored by xAI (Colossus) · Microsoft · Meta · Hyperscalers (undisclosed)
- ▸2026-05-28 AMC - Q1 FY27 PRINT: Revenue $43.8B vs $35.6B est (+23% beat); EPS $4.86 vs $2.94 est (+65% beat); AI Server segment sales $16.1B (+757% YoY)
- ▸2026-05-28 - FY27 guidance issued: Revenue $167B vs $144B est (+16% above); EPS $17.90 vs $13.16 est (+36% above)
- ▸ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - AI server orderbook expansion; xAI Colossus deployment publicly anchored; Microsoft + Meta hyperscaler order flow disclosed in prior quarters
- ▸CSG (Client Solutions Group) - PC / laptop / workstation; mature low-growth segment, the structural overhang vs pure AI server names
- ▸Pre-print setup: spot $317.67 (parabolic from ~$160 over recent weeks); mcap ~$222B at print time; analyst PT mean $212 trailed spot by $100+ - print delivered the AI server beat + raised forward guide, validating the parabolic move ahead of the data
- ▸Setup tension RESOLVED: print delivered on the AI server segment ($16.1B vs trajectory expectations) AND the forward guide; the structural read on ISG as the AI capex beneficiary is now post-print confirmed
- ▸Customer concentration: xAI (Colossus deployment) + Microsoft + Meta + undisclosed hyperscalers; concentrated but counterparties have multi-year capex commitments
- ▸Source: @StockSavvyShay tweet 2026-05-28 20:11 UTC - https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2060091643014037991
- ▸Editorial deep-dive opportunity: post-print recap via earnings-recap skill (FY27 guide validates the bull structural read)
- ▸2026-05-28 post-print reaction - close $402.73 (+~30% vs prior $317.67); @KobeissiLetter breaking flag; the AH/next-session move validates the FY27 guide read at scale
- DELL$435.55last$296.54fib+46.9%vs fibanchored by xAI (Colossus) · Microsoft · Meta · Hyperscalers (undisclosed)
- ▸2026-05-28 AMC - Q1 FY27 PRINT: Revenue $43.8B vs $35.6B est (+23% beat); EPS $4.86 vs $2.94 est (+65% beat); AI Server segment sales $16.1B (+757% YoY)
- ▸2026-05-28 - FY27 guidance issued: Revenue $167B vs $144B est (+16% above); EPS $17.90 vs $13.16 est (+36% above)
- ▸ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - AI server orderbook expansion; xAI Colossus deployment publicly anchored; Microsoft + Meta hyperscaler order flow disclosed in prior quarters
- ▸CSG (Client Solutions Group) - PC / laptop / workstation; mature low-growth segment, the structural overhang vs pure AI server names
- ▸Pre-print setup: spot $317.67 (parabolic from ~$160 over recent weeks); mcap ~$222B at print time; analyst PT mean $212 trailed spot by $100+ - print delivered the AI server beat + raised forward guide, validating the parabolic move ahead of the data
- ▸Setup tension RESOLVED: print delivered on the AI server segment ($16.1B vs trajectory expectations) AND the forward guide; the structural read on ISG as the AI capex beneficiary is now post-print confirmed
- ▸Customer concentration: xAI (Colossus deployment) + Microsoft + Meta + undisclosed hyperscalers; concentrated but counterparties have multi-year capex commitments
- ▸Source: @StockSavvyShay tweet 2026-05-28 20:11 UTC - https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2060091643014037991
- ▸Editorial deep-dive opportunity: post-print recap via earnings-recap skill (FY27 guide validates the bull structural read)
- ▸2026-05-28 post-print reaction - close $402.73 (+~30% vs prior $317.67); @KobeissiLetter breaking flag; the AH/next-session move validates the FY27 guide read at scale
- DELL$435.55last$365.80fib+19.1%vs fibanchored by xAI (Colossus) · Microsoft · Meta · Hyperscalers (undisclosed)
- ▸2026-05-28 AMC - Q1 FY27 PRINT: Revenue $43.8B vs $35.6B est (+23% beat); EPS $4.86 vs $2.94 est (+65% beat); AI Server segment sales $16.1B (+757% YoY)
- ▸2026-05-28 - FY27 guidance issued: Revenue $167B vs $144B est (+16% above); EPS $17.90 vs $13.16 est (+36% above)
- ▸ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - AI server orderbook expansion; xAI Colossus deployment publicly anchored; Microsoft + Meta hyperscaler order flow disclosed in prior quarters
- ▸CSG (Client Solutions Group) - PC / laptop / workstation; mature low-growth segment, the structural overhang vs pure AI server names
- ▸Pre-print setup: spot $317.67 (parabolic from ~$160 over recent weeks); mcap ~$222B at print time; analyst PT mean $212 trailed spot by $100+ - print delivered the AI server beat + raised forward guide, validating the parabolic move ahead of the data
- ▸Setup tension RESOLVED: print delivered on the AI server segment ($16.1B vs trajectory expectations) AND the forward guide; the structural read on ISG as the AI capex beneficiary is now post-print confirmed
- ▸Customer concentration: xAI (Colossus deployment) + Microsoft + Meta + undisclosed hyperscalers; concentrated but counterparties have multi-year capex commitments
- ▸Source: @StockSavvyShay tweet 2026-05-28 20:11 UTC - https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2060091643014037991
- ▸Editorial deep-dive opportunity: post-print recap via earnings-recap skill (FY27 guide validates the bull structural read)
- ▸2026-05-28 post-print reaction - close $402.73 (+~30% vs prior $317.67); @KobeissiLetter breaking flag; the AH/next-session move validates the FY27 guide read at scale
- FN$548.20last- fib
800G / 1.6T datacom transceiver volume is driven by AI-datacenter scale-out optical interconnect; FN is the build partner for that ramp.
anchored by NVDA · CIEN · NOK · LITE · CSCO- ▸**2026-Q1:** $NVDA disclosed as >10% customer; multi-product engagement on datacenter transceivers and cable assemblies.
- ▸**2025-Q4:** Building 10 (Thailand) ramp on schedule; adds ~25% optical assembly capacity for FY27 1.6T ramp.
- ▸**2025:** 800G transceiver shipments now the largest single product line by revenue; growth concentrated in datacom over telecom.
- ▸**Ongoing:** Multi-decade $CIEN / $NOK / $LITE / $CSCO telecom and datacom transceiver programs; automotive lidar manufacturing for multiple OEMs.
- ▸**Capital return:** $300M buyback authorization active; no dividend, no debt.
- HXSCL$41.71last- fib
HBM3E / HBM4 is the memory layer of AI accelerators; SK hynix is the lead HBM supplier to NVIDIA and the front-runner of the HBM oligopoly.
anchored by NVIDIA · Apple · Amazon · Google · Microsoft · Samsung (indirect)- ▸~$168B FY26 estimated operating income (+593% YoY)
- ▸Lead HBM supplier to NVDA - captures the highest-margin layer of the AI memory stack
- ▸2026 HBM capacity reportedly fully booked
- ▸ADR of 000660.KS (KOSPI primary listing)
- LITE$806.10last$615.00fib+31.1%vs fib$400M backloganchored by NVIDIA (strategic partner + $2B equity holder) · Hyperscalers (undisclosed) · Telecom carriers
- ▸2026-Q1 - NVIDIA multi-year strategic agreement: $2B equity investment in Lumentum to fund R&D, future capacity, and US-based fab buildout; named partner for advanced optics technologies
- ▸2026-Q2 (FY26 Q2 print) - Revenue $665.5M, +66% YoY; AI optical mix increasing
- ▸2026-Q3 (FY26 Q3 print, ended 2026-03-28) - Record revenue $808M, +90% YoY; OCS backlog disclosed >$400M; under-shipping demand by 25-30% (capacity constrained)
- ▸2026 - Co-packaged optics (CPO) incremental multi-hundred-million-dollar order; deliverable H1 calendar 2027
- ▸2026-05 - YTD stock return +166%, market cap ~$75.53B (per Macrotrends 2026-05-15)
- ▸Setup tension: largest pure-play optical exposure on the US tape benefits from NVIDIA-anchored AI bandwidth demand and CPO ramp, but NVIDIA concentration (named strategic partner + ~$2B holder) is also the single-counterparty risk; the new US fab adds execution risk on top of valuation that already prices in flawless scaling
- ▸Editorial deep-dive: /articles/roundhill-lyte-photonics-etf - LITE is the largest disclosed pure-play in the $LYTE ETF universe
- MRVL$279.41last$126.00fib+121.8%vs fib
Custom AI ASIC designer for hyperscalers (AWS Trainium, MSFT Maia successors) + coherent-optical DSP leadership post-Inphi acquisition. Three-leg AI hardware exposure.
anchored by AWS · Microsoft · Google · Meta · Hyperscalers (undisclosed third + fourth)- ▸2021 - Inphi acquisition closed ($10B) - coherent-optical DSP leadership
- ▸2024 - AWS Trainium2 + Trainium3 custom-silicon programs ramping
- ▸2024 - Microsoft Maia 100 / successor program co-designed with Marvell
- ▸2025 - Coherent-optical DSPs inside 800G + 1.6T pluggables shipping in volume
- ▸2025-Q4 - Hyperscaler AI silicon revenue mix climbing; legacy networking mix shrinking as share of revenue
- ▸2026-Q1 - Quarterly print; AI silicon revenue commentary the watch
- ▸2026 - Multi-generation custom AI ASIC programs visible 2-3 years forward
- MU$1051.40last$341.00fib+208.3%vs fibanchored by NVIDIA · Hyperscalers (AMZN/MSFT/GOOG/META) · AMD
- ▸~$77B FY26 estimated operating income (+684% YoY)
- ▸HBM3E supplier to NVDA Blackwell platform
- ▸Capacity-constrained through 2026; HBM allocations sold out
- ▸US-domiciled - only major DRAM producer outside Korea
- MU$1051.40last$750.00fib+40.2%vs fibanchored by NVIDIA · Hyperscalers (AMZN/MSFT/GOOG/META) · AMD
- ▸~$77B FY26 estimated operating income (+684% YoY)
- ▸HBM3E supplier to NVDA Blackwell platform
- ▸Capacity-constrained through 2026; HBM allocations sold out
- ▸US-domiciled - only major DRAM producer outside Korea
- MU$1051.40last$850.00fib+23.7%vs fibanchored by NVIDIA · Hyperscalers (AMZN/MSFT/GOOG/META) · AMD
- ▸~$77B FY26 estimated operating income (+684% YoY)
- ▸HBM3E supplier to NVDA Blackwell platform
- ▸Capacity-constrained through 2026; HBM allocations sold out
- ▸US-domiciled - only major DRAM producer outside Korea
- MU$1051.40last$900.00fib+16.8%vs fibanchored by NVIDIA · Hyperscalers (AMZN/MSFT/GOOG/META) · AMD
- ▸~$77B FY26 estimated operating income (+684% YoY)
- ▸HBM3E supplier to NVDA Blackwell platform
- ▸Capacity-constrained through 2026; HBM allocations sold out
- ▸US-domiciled - only major DRAM producer outside Korea
- NVDA$197.14last$71.00fib+177.7%vs fibanchored by Microsoft Azure · Amazon Web Services · Google Cloud · Meta Platforms · OpenAI · xAI
- ▸2026-05-29 - @nvidia tweet 16:00 UTC: "A new era of PC. 25.0528, 121.5990" (https://x.com/nvidia/status/2060390710797328574). Coordinates decode to Taipei, Taiwan (Songshan district). Strongly implies COMPUTEX 2026 keynote announcement of the long-rumored NVIDIA + MediaTek ARM-based PC chip (codename N1/N1x) competing with Apple M-series + Qualcomm Snapdragon X. Direct implications for $INTC + $AMD (core PC threat), $QCOM (Snapdragon X competition), $AAPL (M-series), $MSFT (Windows on ARM partner), $MTK (Taiwan-listed direct partner), $TSM (manufactures all sides - agnostic positive)
- ▸COMPUTEX 2026 week - Jensen Huang keynote scheduled at Taipei. Annual PC industry conference; historically the venue for next-gen accelerator + roadmap announcements
- ▸Q1 FY27 print 2026-05-21 - Data Center segment continued >+90% YoY trajectory (specific numbers deferred to next chart-thesis pass when full P&L is integrated)
- ▸Customer concentration: Microsoft Azure + Amazon AWS + Google Cloud + Meta + OpenAI + xAI (Colossus 100K+ H100s) + neocloud bloc (CoreWeave, Lambda, Crusoe). Top ~10 hyperscaler customers carry the majority of Data Center revenue
- ▸Capital structure: shares outstanding 24.22Bn, YoY −1.11% (NVDA is BUYING BACK, opposite of typical AI hypergrowth names which dilute). Net cash balance sheet (EV $5.12T < mcap $5.23T)
- ▸Snapshot 2026-05-29: market cap $5.23T = largest US-listed equity. Forward catalysts: COMPUTEX 2026 keynote (this week), Q2 FY27 earnings 2026-08-26, B200/GB200 deployment ramp through 2H 2026, Rubin (R100) roadmap reveal expected late 2026
- ▸Setup tension: trades at all-time-high absolute valuation ($5.23T) on continued hyperscaler capex confirmation. Bull case is sustained Data Center growth + new TAM expansion via PC silicon + automotive + sovereign AI deals. Bear case is hyperscaler capex deceleration (any single quarter), AMD MI400 series eroding GPU market share, China export controls escalation, or AI capex normalization at higher base. Next earnings 2026-08-26 sets the FY27 H2 baseline.
- PENG$69.97last- fib
Designs and integrates AI / HPC server clusters (AI factories) plus advanced memory: core AI-hardware supply.
anchored by hyperscalers · US Department of Defense · HPC research institutions- ▸**2026-05-18** : Reaffirmed FY2026 guidance; sales and EPS now expected at the high end of prior ranges. Shares +18.8% on the update
- ▸**2026-05-18** : David Heard (President, Network Infrastructure at Nokia) appointed to the board to help converge the memory + AI-infrastructure strategy
- ▸**2026** : AI-factory demand from hyperscalers, governments, and neocloud providers; new customer wins including a Tier One financial institution; triple-digit YTD share gains
- ▸**Analyst targets** : Stifel raised to $66 (from $24); Rosenblatt raised to $65 (from $54)
- ▸**2026-07-08** : CFO Nate Olmstead to step down (offset by the AI board hire)
- ▸**Segments** : Penguin Computing (AI / HPC cluster design + integration), SMART Modular (advanced memory modules), LED / optoelectronics
- SNDK$2048.17last- fib$42B backloganchored by Hyperscalers (undisclosed) · Frontier AI labs (undisclosed) · Kioxia (JV partner)
- ▸Q3 2026 (Apr 3): EPS $23.41 vs $14.50 est (+61% beat); revenue $5.95B vs $4.70B (+27%)
- ▸5 long-term AI customer supply agreements signed (1-5 year terms)
- ▸3 of 5 inked in Q3 worth ~$42B combined contracted backlog
- ▸2 more agreements signed in current quarter (Q4) - backlog still expanding
- ▸$6B share buyback authorized - confidence signal on the new revenue floor
- ▸Trailing 1y stock perf: +4000% (per @BullTheoryio chart 2026-05-03)
- ▸CEO Goeckeler thesis: "We want to get out of [the boom-bust cycle]. We want consistent, predictable economics."
- TSM$447.92last$314.00fib+42.6%vs fibanchored by NVIDIA · AMD · Apple · Broadcom · Qualcomm · MediaTek · Marvell · Alphabet (TPU) · Amazon (Trainium/Inferentia)
- ▸2024-04: $6.6B CHIPS Act direct funding + $5B loans for Arizona expansion (Fab 21 N4 + planned N3, N2)
- ▸2024-06: confirmed CoWoS capacity doubling through 2025, then again through 2026
- ▸2024-10: Q3 reported HPC 51% of revenue, 3nm 20% of wafer revenue
- ▸2025-01: 2025 capex guide $38-42B, AI accelerator revenue projected to double
- ▸2025-04: announced A16 (1.6nm) backside power delivery for H2 2026 production
- ▸2025-Q3: confirmed $NVDA, $AMD, $AAPL as anchor N3/N2 customers; broadcast multi-year capacity reservations
- ▸2026-Q1: Arizona Fab 21 N4 hits volume production; Fab 2 (N3) construction on track for 2028
Co-movement matrix (252d)
3110 | ARM | ASML | CBRS | DELL | DELL | DELL | DELL | DELL | FN | HXSCL | LITE | MRVL | MU | MU | MU | MU | NVDA | PENG | SNDK | TSM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3110 | · | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ARM | - | · | 0.46 | -0.06 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.37 | -0.16 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.52 |
| ASML | - | 0.46 | · | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| CBRS | - | -0.06 | 0.25 | · | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.35 | -0.11 | 0.33 |
| DELL | - | 0.36 | 0.25 | -0.14 | · | · | · | · | · | 0.23 | -0.05 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| DELL | - | 0.36 | 0.25 | -0.14 | · | · | · | · | · | 0.23 | -0.05 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| DELL | - | 0.36 | 0.25 | -0.14 | · | · | · | · | · | 0.23 | -0.05 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| DELL | - | 0.36 | 0.25 | -0.14 | · | · | · | · | · | 0.23 | -0.05 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| DELL | - | 0.36 | 0.25 | -0.14 | · | · | · | · | · | 0.23 | -0.05 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| FN | - | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.23 | · | 0.07 | 0.64 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| HXSCL | - | -0.16 | 0.00 | 0.17 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | 0.07 | · | 0.10 | -0.02 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | -0.03 | 0.05 | -0.02 | -0.00 |
| LITE | - | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.64 | 0.10 | · | 0.32 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| MRVL | - | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.47 | -0.02 | 0.32 | · | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.49 | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| MU | - | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 0.04 | 0.44 | 0.44 | · | · | · | · | 0.43 | 0.45 | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| MU | - | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 0.04 | 0.44 | 0.44 | · | · | · | · | 0.43 | 0.45 | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| MU | - | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 0.04 | 0.44 | 0.44 | · | · | · | · | 0.43 | 0.45 | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| MU | - | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 0.04 | 0.44 | 0.44 | · | · | · | · | 0.43 | 0.45 | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| NVDA | - | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.48 | -0.03 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | · | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.66 |
| PENG | - | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.33 | · | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| SNDK | - | 0.33 | 0.47 | -0.11 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.43 | -0.02 | 0.49 | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.33 | 0.33 | · | 0.43 |
| TSM | - | 0.52 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.53 | -0.00 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.66 | 0.46 | 0.43 | · |
About themes
Themes are editorial groupings - narrative buckets used for technical screens. They exist alongside bubbles, which are validated empirically by capital-flow co-movement.
When a theme's avg correlation is high, the editorial story is also tradeable as a bloc. When it's low, the narrative groups stocks that don't actually move together - useful for thinking, less useful for trading.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the top stocks in the AI Hardware theme?
- QuantAbundancia's AI Hardware theme tracks 21 stocks ranked editorially: 3110, ARM, ASML, CBRS, DELL, DELL, DELL, DELL, DELL, FN, plus 11 more.
- Do AI Hardware stocks move together?
- The AI Hardware theme has a 252-day average correlation of 0.31 across its members - weak co-movement. Editorial themes are narrative groupings, not capital-flow validated; tradability follows correlation, not the story.