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The market has the most to lose if the central bank raises interest rates. Its rally is powered by tech and AI, making it risky, risky, risky.
Wall Street woke up Monday to a session where the bond market is calling the shots. A stronger-than-expected jobs report and sticky inflation worries pushed Treasury yields higher, forcing investors to rethink expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Yet across a CNBC segment featuring two strategists with very different lenses, their verdict on one corner of the market ... The Bond Market Is Forcing the Fed to Cut Rates. But Wall Street CIO Says “The Semi Trade is Very Much Intact.”
There was a lot that could have made the stock market fall. Investors shrugged off questions about when—or even if—the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again this year after the central bank held rates steady, and they ignored the fact that Jerome Powell plans to stay on the Fed’s Board of Governors even as Kevin Warsh prepares to become chair. Inflation came in hot as oil prices continued to rise, and earnings from Microsoft and Meta Platforms revealed sizable capital spending increases—and resulted in falling stocks. Eli Lilly earnings offered evidence that weight-loss drugs were only getting bigger; Coca-Cola’s beat showed that not all soft-drink makers are suffering from an Ozempic overhang; Alphabet’s capital spending paid off with big profits; and Caterpillar’s numbers demonstrated that there’s more to its business than mining and machinery.