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"Warsh explicitly avoided policy guidance in the statement and press conference, so it seems unlikely that he would permit such guidance via the minutes," writes Englander, head of G-10 foreign-exchange research at the bank. Englander's prediction chimes with the way that Warsh, who spent more than a decade arguing that the Fed should say less, has approached his new post so far.

Stocks were up to start Thursday’s session after the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly in June. The Dow rose 370 points, or 0.7%. The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than economists expected in June, but unemployment dipped to 4.2%.

Treasury yields rise, on path for a quarterly increase. An agreement to fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive and oil prices edge higher. Fed funds futures price at least one Fed hike this year, according to CME.

Treasury yields and the dollar ease as oil prices fall 3% and markets recalibrate the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Odds of one rate increase this year remain high, priced at 42% on CME's FedWatch tool, while odds of a second hike decline to 28% from 34% a week ago, as inflation forecasts cool down.

The loudest feedback on Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Fed chairman came from the bond market. Just look at the Treasury yield curve. U.S. debt maturing in 10-years now yields only 0.7663 percentage points more than debt maturing in 2 years.

Bonds are in the driver's seat as Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting. Look at the yield or interest rate on the 2-year note, which is up strongly by 0.097 percentage points. Higher yields on a shorter-dated note suggest the bond market is readying to see a rate hike by the Fed sometime this year.

The stock market was rising ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting press conference. The Dow was up just 135 points, or 0.3%, after hitting another record on Tuesday. The Nasdaq was up 0.4%.

Treasury yields tick higher ahead of the first interest rate decision under Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. Rates are expected to remain unchanged. Investors are curious about how Warsh will change the central bank's communications with the public and its forward guidance.

Demand for Treasuries picks up, sending yields lower, as details of the announced peace deal with Iran remain unclear and the first two-day Fed meeting with Warsh as chairman starts. Oil prices fall nearly 5% and the WSJ Dollar Index is flat.

Treasury yields and the dollar slip as President Trump and Iran agree to sign a peace deal later this week while markets brace for the first Fed meeting under Chairman Warsh. The U.S.-Iran pact is expected to restore normal oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

News of a deal between Washington and Tehran that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz has prompted investors to pare back bets on higher rates this morning. The thinking: If oil starts flowing more freely, energy prices would likely fall, reducing inflationary pressure and giving the Fed less reason to increase rates. It's a reversal from just a week ago, when investors were still digesting news of a stronger-than-expected May jobs report.

Treasury yields and the dollar rise amid hotter-than-expected U.S. wholesale inflation and as President Trump renews military threats against Iran. May PPI was 1.1%, matching April's advance and beating WSJ consensus of 0.

The stock market’s slide continued on Wednesday after the latest inflation report failed to rouse Wall Street. The Dow fell 340 points, or 0.7%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note was down to 4.12%.

Treasury yields and the dollar are little changed from Tuesday, as U.S. inflation meets expectations and the war in Iran flares up. The 12-month May CPI accelerates to 4.2% from 3.8% in April. Ex-energy and food, core inflation is a milder 2.

Stock futures were still trading lower after the consumer price index for May matched expectations. The headline CPI rose at a 4.2% annual rate, which was in line with the consensus among economists. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at a 2.9% annual rate, which was also in line with expectations.

Investors cautiously return to bond markets, sending Treasury yields slightly lower and softening some of the selloff triggered by Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report. The dollar follows a similar path.

The hot May jobs report added to the inflation concerns that have increasingly fueled Wall Street's bets that rate hikes may be more likely than cuts this year. Futures markets Friday suggested a roughly 58% likelihood of at least one rate hike by year's end, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Bonds might not be the safety net they used to be if inflation stays high.

Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average rose 0.15 percentage point to 6.51%, the biggest weekly gain since late March and the highest rate since the week of August 28, 2025. Geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about inflation are among the factors dragging Treasury yields higher—and, by extension, mortgage rates. The iShares U.S. Home Construction exchange-traded fund, which tracks home builders, was down about 1.3%, while the 10-year Treasury yield, which informs the direction of mortgage rates, was 0.028 percentage point higher, to 4.620%.

Treasury yields give back some of their overnight increases as markets wait for a U.S.-Iran peace deal while U.S. indicators support the Fed's wait-and-see approach. Weekly requests for unemployment benefits decline to 209,000 from an upwardly revised 212,000, versus WSJ consensus of 210,000.

Interest rates, economic growth expectations, inflation trends, and credit conditions often determine which parts of the market lead and which fall behind. Dow Industrials trading near the very round 50,000 level is beginning to resemble a potential double top relative to the February peak. Bearish RSI divergence, marked by lower highs in April and May even as the Dow pushed upward, suggests upside momentum is fading.

Hotter-than-expected consumer and wholesale price readings this week have rattled investors, who were already fretting about the war in the Middle East driving up fuel costs. President Donald Trump said overnight that the U.S. doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz open “at all,” adding to worries that the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran could drag on.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is rising toward its highest level in nearly a year, as rising oil prices fan fears about inflation again. The yield topped 4.54% in early trading this morning, as Brent crude futures rose above $109 barrel. President Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded this morning, and while Trump said both he and Xi want the war to end, the meeting publicly yielded little in the way of concrete steps toward a resolution.

Demand for Treasuries picks up overnight, and yields fall, as President Trump meets with China's Xi Jinping amid U.S. inflation jitters. Weekly jobless claims stay with a long-standing range, rising to 211,000 from a downwardly revised 199,000.

Stocks are hitting records as earnings surge. Meanwhile, bonds are competing harder for investor cash.

US Treasury yields rose to their highest levels in 10 months as investors digested two hotter-than-expected inflation readings.

Tuesday’s hot inflation reading has added to pressure in the bond market, pushing Treasury yields closer to their highest levels of the year. In recent trading, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S.

The Treasury is set to auction $42 billion worth of bonds that expire in 10 years this afternoon. The auction comes after the latest inflation report revealed that the central bank remains far from its 2% target. Expectations of stubborn prices make investors demand higher yields to make up for the loss in a bonds’ purchasing power.

Consumer prices jumped more than expected in April, a sign that inflation is accelerating as the Iran war's fallout ripples through the economy. The headline consumer price index rose 0.6% from the previous month and 3.8% from a year earlier, above the 0.59% monthly gain and 3.7% annual increase economists had forecast, according to a survey by FactSet. The 3.8% annual increase marks the fastest pace of price growth since May 2023 and is also a notable jump from March, when CPI rose 3.3% year over year.

Treasury yields rise as U.S. inflation accelerates while Middle East tensions remain high. Consumer prices rise at a 3.8% 12-month pace, accelerating from 3.3% in March. Economists surveyed by WSJ expected 3.