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European Bond Yields Climb on Inflation Fears
The Wall Street Journal30d agoneutral
European Bond Yields Climb on Inflation Fears

European bond yields are forging higher, in line with moves in U.S. Treasurys, as renewed hostilities in the Mideast push oil prices higher and revive inflation worries. The yield on the 10-year U.K. gilt has risen above 5%, after ending last week below 4.

Yield on 10-Year Treasury Touches Highest Level Since May
The Wall Street Journal35d agoneutral
Yield on 10-Year Treasury Touches Highest Level Since May

U.S.-Iran tensions pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasurys to its highest intraday level since May this morning. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached as high as 4.583%, according to Tradeweb, its highest level since May 22.

Bond Yields Jump on Trump’s Ceasefire Comments
The Wall Street Journal36d agobullish
Bond Yields Jump on Trump’s Ceasefire Comments

Global bond yields are jumping on the back of higher oil prices this morning after President Trump said he thinks the ceasefire with Iran is "over." European bonds saw some of the biggest moves, with benchmark 10-year bond yields in the U.

Don’t Hold Your Breath for the Fed Minutes, This Strategist Says
The Wall Street Journal37d agoneutral
Don’t Hold Your Breath for the Fed Minutes, This Strategist Says

"Warsh explicitly avoided policy guidance in the statement and press conference, so it seems unlikely that he would permit such guidance via the minutes," writes Englander, head of G-10 foreign-exchange research at the bank. Englander's prediction chimes with the way that Warsh, who spent more than a decade arguing that the Fed should say less, has approached his new post so far.

Dow Opens Higher Despite Soft Jobs Report
Barrons.com41d agoneutral
Dow Opens Higher Despite Soft Jobs Report

Stocks were up to start Thursday’s session after the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly in June. The Dow rose 370 points, or 0.7%. The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than economists expected in June, but unemployment dipped to 4.2%.

Treasury Yields Rise Ahead of U.S. Labor Data
Barrons.com43d agoneutral
Treasury Yields Rise Ahead of U.S. Labor Data

Treasury yields rise, on path for a quarterly increase. An agreement to fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive and oil prices edge higher. Fed funds futures price at least one Fed hike this year, according to CME.

Treasury Yields, Dollar Trend Lower as Inflation Fears Ease
Barrons.com47d agoneutral
Treasury Yields, Dollar Trend Lower as Inflation Fears Ease

Treasury yields and the dollar ease as oil prices fall 3% and markets recalibrate the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Odds of one rate increase this year remain high, priced at 42% on CME's FedWatch tool, while odds of a second hike decline to 28% from 34% a week ago, as inflation forecasts cool down.

Bond Yields Drop and Stocks Rise After PCE Report
Barrons.com48d agobearish
Bond Yields Drop and Stocks Rise After PCE Report

Bond yields dropped and stocks kept rising after the Federal Reserve’s benchmark inflation gauge matched expectations. The core personal expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is watched closely by the central bank, rose at a 0.

Treasury Yields, Dollar Rise as U.S.-Iran Talks Stumble Along
Barrons.com51d agobearish
Treasury Yields, Dollar Rise as U.S.-Iran Talks Stumble Along

Treasury yields and the dollar rise amid tense negotiations in the Middle East. Oil prices decline as mediators say U.S.-Iran talks will continue this week, following a rocky start. The long disruption in global oil supplies, however, keeps inflation fears elevated.

Bond Market Gives Its Feedback on the Fed
Barrons.com56d agoneutral
Bond Market Gives Its Feedback on the Fed

The loudest feedback on Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Fed chairman came from the bond market. Just look at the Treasury yield curve. U.S. debt maturing in 10-years now yields only 0.7663 percentage points more than debt maturing in 2 years.

Bonds Like the Fed's Hawkish Tilt
Barrons.com56d agoneutral
Bonds Like the Fed's Hawkish Tilt

Bonds are in the driver's seat as Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting. Look at the yield or interest rate on the 2-year note, which is up strongly by 0.097 percentage points. Higher yields on a shorter-dated note suggest the bond market is readying to see a rate hike by the Fed sometime this year.

Treasury Yields Rise Ahead of First Fed Decision Under Warsh
Barrons.com56d agoneutral
Treasury Yields Rise Ahead of First Fed Decision Under Warsh

Treasury yields tick higher ahead of the first interest rate decision under Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. Rates are expected to remain unchanged. Investors are curious about how Warsh will change the central bank's communications with the public and its forward guidance.

Treasury Yields Ease as Markets Await Iran Deal Details, Fed
Barrons.com57d agoneutral
Treasury Yields Ease as Markets Await Iran Deal Details, Fed

Demand for Treasuries picks up, sending yields lower, as details of the announced peace deal with Iran remain unclear and the first two-day Fed meeting with Warsh as chairman starts. Oil prices fall nearly 5% and the WSJ Dollar Index is flat.

Treasury Yields, Dollar Decline as U.S.-Iran Deal Materializes
Barrons.com58d agoneutral
Treasury Yields, Dollar Decline as U.S.-Iran Deal Materializes

Treasury yields and the dollar slip as President Trump and Iran agree to sign a peace deal later this week while markets brace for the first Fed meeting under Chairman Warsh. The U.S.-Iran pact is expected to restore normal oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders Reduce Bets on a Fed Rate Rise This Year
The Wall Street Journal58d agoneutral
Traders Reduce Bets on a Fed Rate Rise This Year

News of a deal between Washington and Tehran that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz has prompted investors to pare back bets on higher rates this morning. The thinking: If oil starts flowing more freely, energy prices would likely fall, reducing inflationary pressure and giving the Fed less reason to increase rates. It's a reversal from just a week ago, when investors were still digesting news of a stronger-than-expected May jobs report.

Treasury Yields, Dollar Rise on War Rhetoric, U.S. Data
Barrons.com62d agoneutral
Treasury Yields, Dollar Rise on War Rhetoric, U.S. Data

Treasury yields and the dollar rise amid hotter-than-expected U.S. wholesale inflation and as President Trump renews military threats against Iran. May PPI was 1.1%, matching April's advance and beating WSJ consensus of 0.

Stock Futures Stay Lower After CPI Inflation Report Matches Expectations
Barrons.com63d agoneutral
Stock Futures Stay Lower After CPI Inflation Report Matches Expectations

Stock futures were still trading lower after the consumer price index for May matched expectations. The headline CPI rose at a 4.2% annual rate, which was in line with the consensus among economists. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at a 2.9% annual rate, which was also in line with expectations.

2-Year Yield Jumps to Highest Level in a Year
The Wall Street Journal68d agobullish
2-Year Yield Jumps to Highest Level in a Year

The inflation fears sparking Friday's selloff propelled the 2-year Treasury yield to its level since Feb. 2025. The 2-year note settled at 4.160%, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.537%. Investors dumped bonds after a hot jobs report rekindled the possibility of rate hikes this year.

Rate Hikes? In This Economy?
The Wall Street Journal68d agoneutral
Rate Hikes? In This Economy?

The hot May jobs report added to the inflation concerns that have increasingly fueled Wall Street's bets that rate hikes may be more likely than cuts this year. Futures markets Friday suggested a roughly 58% likelihood of at least one rate hike by year's end, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Treasury Yields Jump on Hot Jobs Report. Stock Futures Stay Lower.
Barrons.com68d agobullish
Treasury Yields Jump on Hot Jobs Report. Stock Futures Stay Lower.

Stock futures kept falling after a hot jobs report sent bond yields higher. Dow futures were flat. S&P 500 futures were down 0.6%. Nasdaq 100 futures was down 1.3%. The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, which was well above expectations at 105,000 jobs.

Treasury Yields Rise on Hawkish Waller, Falling Consumer Sentiment
Barrons.com82d agobearish
Treasury Yields Rise on Hawkish Waller, Falling Consumer Sentiment

Treasury yields rise as Fed governor Waller turns hawkish and U.S. consumer sentiment falls more than expected. Waller says a prolonged Middle East conflict increases the risk of energy inflation spreading across the economy, hence the Fed should stop signaling a rate cut as its most likely next move.