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Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.
Communication Services · Entertainment
WBD is a deleveraging story wrapped in a streaming-vs-linear transition. The $35B+ net debt pile from the 2022 Discovery+WarnerMedia merger forces management to prioritize FCF over growth optics. Max DTC turned profitable in 2025 and is scaling internationally; linear Networks is melting (-8 to -12% revenue/yr) but still throws off cash.
The strategic split into Streaming/Studios + Global Networks (announced 2025, targeted mid-2026 close) is the catalyst - separates the growth asset from the melting ice cube.
- Max DTC profitable in 2025, ~110M subs, scaling Latin America + APAC rollout
- Sports rights anchor: NBA (new deal through 2035), MLB, NHL, March Madness, US Olympics 2026-2034
- Studios pipeline rebuilding: Dune, Mickey 17, DC reboot under Gunn, HBO prestige slate
- $35B debt down from $50B post-merger peak; FCF prioritized to delever
- Split into 2 cos (mid-2026) unlocks value - RemainCo Networks pays dividend, SpinCo Streaming gets growth multiple
- Linear cable revenue declining 8-12%/yr; cord-cutting accelerating
- Net debt still $35B+ on ~$10B EBITDA - leverage ratio ~3.5x, refi risk if rates stay elevated
- Max ARPU pressure from password-sharing crackdown lapping + ad-tier dilution
- Streaming bundle wars ($NFLX, $DIS, $AMZN, $AAPL) cap pricing power
- Studios hit-driven - flops (Joker 2, Furiosa) directly drag quarters
- CNN news ratings collapse + linear ad market weakness drag Networks
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