Theme
Missile Defense / Golden Dome
Primes building the next-gen US missile defense and Golden Dome architecture.
0.560avg corr (252d)
4stocks
Decent co-movementStocks · key Fib levels
- #1LMT$509.46last- fibanchored by US Department of Defense · US Air Force · US Navy · NASA · UK Ministry of Defence · Japan MoD · Poland MoD · Saudi Arabia (FMS)
- ▸2026 Q1: Pentagon Lot 18-19 F-35 modification, ~$11.8B; 145 jets across US + FMS partners
- ▸2026 Feb: Poland PAC-3 MSE follow-on, ~$1.2B (Ukraine-adjacent restock)
- ▸2025 Dec: NGI (Next-Gen Interceptor) down-select win vs $RTX, ~$17B life-cycle ceiling through 2030s
- ▸2025 Q3: Japan FMS - 105 F-35A + 42 F-35B awarded across multi-year LRIP envelope
- ▸2025: HIMARS multi-year contract, ~$4.5B - Ukraine, Estonia, Australia, Poland deliveries
- ▸2024: Orion crew vehicle Artemis IV-VI production contract, ~$4.6B through 2030
- ▸Ongoing: GPS III + GPS IIIF - 10 SV constellation, sustainment through 2040s
- #2NOC$509.31last- fibanchored by US Air Force · US Space Force · Missile Defense Agency · US Navy · NASA · Allied FMS (UK, Australia, Japan, Poland)
- ▸2024-09: $7.0B Sentinel restructure award (USAF) - program continues post-Nunn-McCurdy review
- ▸2024-12: $1.6B EAC charge on B-21 LRIP disclosed; production continues
- ▸2025-03: NGI (Next-Gen Interceptor) downselect win vs Lockheed - $3.3B initial development award (MDA)
- ▸2025-Q2: Starshield bus orders disclosed (undisclosed prime customer, gov constellation)
- ▸2025-09: B-21 first production-representative airframe delivered to Edwards AFB for flight test
- ▸2026-02: DoD FY26 PB requests +$3.2B for Sentinel, +$1.1B for B-21 procurement ramp
- #3LHX$290.59last- fibanchored by US Department of Defense · US Space Force · NASA · US Army · Lockheed Martin · Raytheon (RTX) · Northrop Grumman · UK Ministry of Defence · Australian Department of Defence
- ▸**2024-Q3**: $919M USAF F-16 EW suite (Viper Shield) - international FMS backlog
- ▸**2024**: SDA Tranche 2 Tracking Layer - 18 missile-warning satellites, ~$919M
- ▸**2023-2024**: Aerojet Rocketdyne - $4.7B acquisition closed Jul-2023, GMLRS/PAC-3/SM-6 SRM sole-source
- ▸**2024-Q2**: US Army HMS Manpack - $987M IDIQ ceiling, Falcon IV tactical radios
- ▸**2024**: NASA Artemis - Orion crew module avionics + Lunar Gateway HALO subsystems
- ▸**2023**: USSF Resilient GPS - competitive prime selection vs $LMT, $NOC
- ▸**2024-Q4**: AUKUS undersea - Australian sovereign radio production line announced
- #4RTX$189.73last- fibanchored by US Department of Defense · Boeing · Airbus · Lockheed Martin · Foreign Military Sales (Germany, Poland, Saudi, Japan)
- ▸2026 Q1: $5.2B Patriot multi-year contract for US Army + 4 allied nations (Germany, Romania, Netherlands, Poland)
- ▸2025 Q4: $1.3B SM-3 Block IIA production lot, Missile Defense Agency
- ▸2025 Q4: $3.4B F135 sustainment award for $LMT F-35 fleet (P&W)
- ▸2025 Q3: $1.15B AIM-120 AMRAAM multi-year, US Air Force + FMS
- ▸2025 Q2: $2.0B LTAMDS (next-gen Patriot radar) Lot 2 production
- ▸2025 Q1: GTF powder-metal fleet management plan finalized - ~$6-7B aggregate charge, AOG peak ~350 aircraft
- ▸2024 Q4: $1.2B NASAMS expansion for Ukraine + European allies (Kongsberg JV)
Co-movement matrix (252d)
LHX | LMT | NOC | RTX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHX | · | 0.54 | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| LMT | 0.54 | · | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| NOC | 0.66 | 0.46 | · | 0.57 |
| RTX | 0.64 | 0.49 | 0.57 | · |
About themes
Themes are editorial groupings - narrative buckets used for technical screens. They exist alongside bubbles, which are validated empirically by capital-flow co-movement.
When a theme's avg correlation is high, the editorial story is also tradeable as a bloc. When it's low, the narrative groups stocks that don't actually move together - useful for thinking, less useful for trading.
Related research
Frequently asked questions
- What are the top stocks in the Missile Defense / Golden Dome theme?
- QuantAbundancia's Missile Defense / Golden Dome theme tracks 4 stocks ranked editorially: LMT, NOC, LHX, RTX.
- Do Missile Defense / Golden Dome stocks move together?
- The Missile Defense / Golden Dome theme has a 252-day average correlation of 0.56 across its members - decent co-movement. Editorial themes are narrative groupings, not capital-flow validated; tradability follows correlation, not the story.