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Boost Run, Inc.
Information Technology · IT Services
Structural read: a micro-cap neocloud whose entire equity case is a financing-gap bet, not a revenue bet. 7M cash plus ~$112M of de-SPAC trust money. 2B-cap company can fund a billion-plus of GPUs without crippling dilution or expensive debt.
CoreWeave ($CRWV) closes that gap with ~$20B of contract-secured debt and a ~$99B backlog; Boost Run has neither the scale nor the balance sheet, which makes it the highest-beta, highest-risk expression of the neocloud trade.
- $940M contracted backlog plus the $1.44B Dell supply agreement de-risk demand and hardware access at once.
- Inference-compute demand tailwind; Craig-Hallum initiated coverage Buy, framing BRUN as a discounted way to play neocloud growth vs $CRWV / $NBIS.
- ~250% forecast revenue growth for 2026 off a small base; ~85% gross margin on the services line.
- Enterprise-compliance posture (SOC 2 / HIPAA / ISO) targets regulated workloads the larger neoclouds underserve.
- The financing gap is the whole risk: ~$9.7M cash against a $1.44B hardware commitment forces dilution or high-cost debt. Working-capital deficit was $21M at year-end 2025.
- De-SPAC mechanics: a ~31.9M-share micro-float, warrant overhang, lockup expirations, and the $10-to-$42 post-listing volatility that comes with them.
- Valuation: ~82x trailing sales with a deeply negative operating margin (about -12%) and net margin (about -60%) prices perfection on three weeks of public trading.
- Backlog customer concentration is undisclosed; a single contract slipping would move the model.
- Sector derating risk: hyperscaler in-sourcing and custom silicon (Google TPU) pressure the entire $CRWV / $NBIS neocloud complex if AI capacity demand cools.
Taxonomy note: belongs in a future "Neocloud / GPU-as-a-Service" bubble (with $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN, $APLD). Mapped to hyperscalers (the closest existing "rents AI compute capacity" home, same as $NBIS) until that bubble has its own constituents.
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