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Symbotic Inc.
Industrials · Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Pure-play on physical-AI in the warehouse: end-to-end robotic fulfilment system sold as a multi-year deployment contract, with backlog the cleanest demand signal. $WMT anchor (~85%+ of revenue) is both the moat and the concentration risk; GreenBox JV with $SFTBY (SoftBank) is the multi-tenant scaling vector.
- Contracted backlog $22B+ provides multi-year revenue visibility into FY29+
- $WMT committed to all 42 regional distribution centers; outsourcing fulfilment from a $600B+ revenue base
- GreenBox JV ($7.5B initial commitment) opens warehouse-as-a-service to non-Walmart shippers
- Recurring software/O&M layer compounds as the installed base grows
- Closest public comp to a physical-AI execution story (vs lab/sim peers)
- Customer concentration: a Walmart capex pause resets the growth curve
- Restated FY23/FY24 financials (Sep 2025) raised internal-controls overhang
- Gross margins compress on system-deployment mix vs steady-state O&M
- Cash burn through deployment ramp; FCF inflection depends on milestone billing
- GreenBox needs third-party shipper wins before the multi-tenant thesis is proven
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