Quant'AbondanceL'abondance, quantifiée.
Theme

Critical Materials

Rare-earth and strategic materials supply chain - the substrate of defense and AI hardware.

- avg corr (252d)
2stocks
n/a co-movement

Stocks · key Fib levels

  • #1
    MP
    $56.01last
    $60.00fib
    anchored by US Department of Defense · General Motors ($GM) · Apple ($AAPL) · Shenghe Resources
    • **2025-07** - US Department of Defense takes $400M preferred-equity stake + sets $150M/t NdPr price floor; largest sovereign-equity intervention in a US miner in decades.
    • **2025-07** - $AAPL commits $500M prepayment for US-recycled magnets from Fort Worth facility (multi-year offtake).
    • **2022** - $GM long-term supply agreement for NdFeB magnets and NdPr alloy, anchor offtake for the Fort Worth Stage III plant.
    • **2024** - Saudi Ma'aden JV framework for rare-earth processing optionality outside the US.
    • **Ongoing** - Pentagon Defense Production Act Title III awards funding separation + heavy rare-earth processing expansion at Mountain Pass.
  • Near-monopoly on production-grade T-Glass - a genuine critical-material chokepoint for AI accelerator supply chains.

    anchored by NVIDIA · Microsoft · Google · Amazon · Apple (courting)
    • **2023-H2** - T-Glass lines running at full capacity; multi-quarter delivery waits for substrate / PCB customers
    • **2025** - ¥150B Fukushima plant expansion to ~triple production-grade T-Glass capacity (mass production targeted by end-2026)
    • **2025-11** - Capacity partnership with Nan Ya (Taiwan); Nan Ya to handle ~20% of glass-fiber output by 2027 amid the AI surge
    • **2026** - Top-tier T-Glass priced $80-100/kg; end-demand pulled by NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, Amazon; reportedly courted by Apple
    • **FY26 (reported)** - Net income ¥41.8B (+225% YoY) - boosted ~¥37B by extraordinary / one-off items; revenue ¥118.2B (+8.4%)
    • **FY27 (guide)** - Net sales ¥137.0B (+15.9%), operating profit ¥26.0B (+24.9%), net income ¥17.0B (one-off rolls off)

About themes

Themes are editorial groupings - narrative buckets used for technical screens. They exist alongside bubbles, which are validated empirically by capital-flow co-movement.

When a theme's avg correlation is high, the editorial story is also tradeable as a bloc. When it's low, the narrative groups stocks that don't actually move together - useful for thinking, less useful for trading.

Related research

Frequently asked questions

What are the top stocks in the Critical Materials theme?
QuantAbundancia's Critical Materials theme tracks 2 stocks ranked editorially: MP, 3110.